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Mon, 26 Oct 2026
06:55:34 pm
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
06:55:34 pm
Rudransh Sangwan
Published at: September 11, 2026, 8:02 AM
Synopsis
Brent crude is near $110 as Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions tighten global supply. Here's what could drive oil toward $120 and how higher crude could affect India, the rupee, OMCs and stocks.
Crude oil prices remained sharply higher on Friday, September 11, as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea raised concerns over global supply. Brent crude traded around $108 to $110 a barrel, while WTI was around $103. Brent is up about 13% this week and is heading for its first weekly close above $100 since May.
For India, the impact is bigger as the rupee has weakened toward ₹95.6 to ₹95.8 against the US dollar, making imported crude more expensive.
| Benchmark | Approx. price | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $108 to $110 | Higher |
| WTI crude | $102 to $103 | Higher |
| MCX crude | Around ₹9,700 | Higher |
| Indian crude basket | Above $100 | Higher |
Brent briefly moved close to $110, while the September MCX crude contract was around ₹9,722 a barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz is the biggest supply concern. Crude flows through the waterway have fallen from around 20 million barrels per day normally to below 2 million barrels per day.
The Red Sea is adding further shipping risks, with rising tensions around Yemen and the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
Brent jumped about 6% on Thursday and moved above $107, while WTI also crossed $100. The focus has now shifted from whether oil can cross $100 to how long the supply disruption could last.
The next major Brent levels are $110, $115 and $120.
The outlook depends mainly on shipping activity and the geopolitical situation.
| Scenario | Brent range |
|---|---|
| Rapid de escalation | $85 to $95 |
| Current disruption continues | $100 to $115 |
| Severe Hormuz restrictions | $115 to $130 |
| Major Gulf production outage | $130 to $150+ |
A move toward $120 becomes more likely if Hormuz restrictions continue or Gulf production is disrupted. A ceasefire or reopening of shipping routes could trigger a sharp fall.
Global oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, while inventories were about 410 million barrels below their level at the start of the conflict.
The global oil balance is expected to show a deficit of around 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter. However, higher prices could eventually weaken fuel demand.
OPEC+ maintained its October production policy at its September 6 meeting. Its next meeting is scheduled for October 4.
However, increasing production may not solve the immediate problem if crude cannot move through disrupted shipping routes.
India imports more than 88% of its crude requirements, leaving the economy highly sensitive to international oil prices.
If crude rises while the rupee weakens, the impact becomes larger. At $80 crude and USD/INR at ₹90, the cost is about ₹7,200 a barrel. At $120 and ₹98, it becomes about ₹11,760, a rise of roughly 63%.
Higher crude prices can support upstream producers such as ONGC and Oil India.
However, IOC, BPCL and HPCL could face margin pressure if domestic fuel prices do not rise with international crude.
Airlines such as IndiGo may also face higher fuel costs, while paint, tyre, logistics and transport companies could see input costs rise.
The biggest indicator is physical shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A recovery in tanker traffic could pull crude prices lower quickly.
Further tanker attacks, Gulf energy infrastructure damage or wider military escalation could push Brent toward $115 and $120.
What is the crude oil price today in India? MCX crude oil is trading around ₹9,722 per barrel, with prices rising sharply amid global supply concerns.
What is the Brent crude oil price today? Brent crude is trading around the $106 to $110 per barrel range as Middle East supply risks remain high.
Why is crude oil price rising today? Crude oil prices are rising mainly because of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, raising concerns about global oil supplies.
Why is Brent crude oil above $100 today? Brent has moved above $100 as tanker attacks and shipping disruptions have increased fears of a prolonged supply shortage.
Will crude oil prices reach $120 per barrel? Brent could move toward $120 if shipping disruptions continue or Gulf oil production faces further damage.
What is the crude oil price forecast for 2026? The outlook depends heavily on Middle East tensions, oil supply flows, Hormuz shipping activity and global demand.
Will crude oil prices fall if the Strait of Hormuz reopens? Yes, a meaningful recovery in shipping through Hormuz could reduce the supply risk premium and push crude prices lower.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for crude oil prices? Hormuz is a major oil shipping route, so restrictions there can sharply reduce the amount of crude reaching global markets.
How does rising crude oil price affect India? Higher crude increases India's import bill and can put pressure on the rupee, inflation, fuel costs and corporate margins.
How does crude oil price affect the Indian stock market? Higher crude can benefit upstream oil producers but may hurt airlines, oil marketing companies, transport businesses and other crude sensitive sectors.
Which Indian stocks benefit from higher crude oil prices? Upstream oil producers such as ONGC and Oil India can benefit when higher crude prices support their oil realizations.
Which Indian stocks are affected by rising crude oil prices? Oil marketing companies, airlines, tyre companies, paint companies, logistics firms and transport businesses can face higher costs.
Will ONGC shares benefit from higher crude oil prices? Higher crude prices can support ONGC's realizations, although the stock also depends on production, costs and broader market conditions.
Will Oil India shares benefit from rising crude oil prices? Higher crude prices can support Oil India's earnings because it is an upstream oil producer.
How does crude oil price affect IOC, BPCL and HPCL? Higher crude can pressure oil marketing company margins if domestic petrol and diesel prices do not rise in line with international oil prices.
Why are airline stocks affected by crude oil prices? Higher crude prices can increase aviation fuel costs, putting pressure on airline operating margins.
How does crude oil price affect the rupee? Higher crude increases India's dollar demand for oil imports, which can put additional pressure on the Indian rupee.
What is the impact of crude oil at $120 on India? Crude at $120 could increase India's import costs and put greater pressure on inflation, the rupee and corporate margins.
What is the MCX crude oil price today? The September MCX crude contract is around ₹9,722 per barrel, according to current market data.
What should investors watch for crude oil prices next? The biggest factors are shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker attacks, Gulf production, geopolitical developments and changes in global oil inventories.
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Gold rate today on October 26, 2026: Check 24K and 22K gold prices in six Indian cities, silver rates and international bullion prices.
Gold and silver prices fell, with silver down 10% in October and at a seven month low. Rising crude and US rate uncertainty added pressure.
Gold and silver prices fell, with silver down 10% in October and at a seven month low. Rising crude and US rate uncertainty added pressure.
