How Did War Impact Crude Oil Prices from February to April 2026?

The movement in global crude oil prices between February and April 2026 reflects one of the most powerful examples of geopolitical influence on commodity markets. What started as a stable pricing environment quickly transformed into a volatile, multi-phase rally driven by supply fears, speculative activity, and macroeconomic shifts.

This shift is critical for investors, traders, and policymakers because it highlights how oil markets price risk ahead of actual events. The move from $72 to nearly $100 was not just a temporary spike but a structural repricing of global energy risk.

Base Phase: Stability Before the Conflict Shock

Before the conflict escalated, crude oil markets were operating in a balanced environment with limited volatility and predictable demand-supply dynamics. Prices around $72 reflected equilibrium conditions supported by stable global demand and controlled production levels.

Baseline Market Snapshot

Parameter	Value
Date	28 Feb 2026
Crude Price (USD)	$72
Crude Price (INR)	₹6,552
Market Condition	Stable
Risk Premium	Low

At this stage, inflation pressures were controlled and no geopolitical risk was priced into oil.

Key Takeaways

• Markets were driven by fundamentals, not fear
• No geopolitical premium existed in pricing
• Demand and supply remained balanced

Early Shock Phase: Rapid Risk Pricing Begins

As tensions escalated, oil markets reacted instantly. Prices moved sharply even before actual disruptions occurred, showing how expectations drive markets.

Early Shock Price Movement

Date	Trigger	Oil ($)	Oil (₹)	% Change ($)	% Change (₹)
03 Mar	Supply concerns	81	₹7,450	+12.5%	+13.7%
07 Mar	Shipping risks	90	₹8,325	+25%	+27%

This phase shows that financial markets react faster than real-world supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• Risk gets priced before actual shortages
• Shipping and logistics fears drive early rallies
• Institutional traders enter early positioning

Panic Phase: Extreme Volatility and Market Overshoot

The most aggressive movement occurred during the panic phase. Prices surged rapidly as traders priced worst-case scenarios.

Panic Spike Data

Date	Event	Oil Range ($)	Oil Range (₹)	% Change ($)	% Change (₹)
09 Mar	Panic spike	95 to 119	₹8,835 to ₹11,113	+32% to +65%	+35% to +69%

This phase reflects emotional trading behavior where fear dominates rational pricing.

Key Takeaways

• Markets overshoot during uncertainty
• Speculation and leverage amplify volatility
• Extreme spikes are usually short-lived

Structural Rally Phase: Sustained Uptrend Confirmation

After panic stabilized, oil entered a sustained uptrend driven by real supply concerns and institutional demand.

Sustained Rally Data

Date	Event	Oil ($)	Oil (₹)	% Change ($)	% Change (₹)
13 Mar	Conflict escalation	103	₹9,661	+43%	+47%
17 Mar	Continued rally	112	₹10,528	+55%	+60%
26 Mar	Peak level	113	₹10,679	+57%	+63%

This phase confirms that the price movement was structural, not temporary.

Key Takeaways

• Prices stabilized above $100
• Institutional buying supported the rally
• Supply concerns became long-term

Stabilization Phase: Correction Without Collapse

After reaching peak levels, oil prices corrected but remained elevated. Markets started absorbing the shock.

Stabilization Data

Date	Event	Oil ($)	Oil (₹)	% Change ($)	% Change (₹)
30 Mar	Cooling begins	103	₹9,702	+43%	+48%
05 Apr	Decline phase	96	₹8,928	+33%	+36%
10 Apr	Range formation	99	₹9,030	+37%	+38%

Markets moved from panic to consolidation.

Key Takeaways

• Panic reduced but risk remained
• Prices did not return to pre-war levels
• A new trading range was formed

New Equilibrium Phase: Structural Price Reset

By late April, oil stabilized around $97, forming a new baseline significantly higher than before the conflict.

New Price Structure

Date	Phase	Oil ($)	Oil (₹)	% Change ($)	% Change (₹)
20 Apr	Stabilized	97	₹9,118	+35%	+39%
28 Apr	Current	97	₹9,137	+35%	+39%

This confirms that markets had fully repriced geopolitical risk.

Key Takeaways

• New baseline formed above $95
• Prices remain structurally elevated
• Risk premium is now permanent

Currency Impact: Why India Felt Stronger Impact

India faced a higher impact due to rupee weakness, which amplified global oil price increases.

USD vs INR Impact

Metric	Increase
Oil Price (USD)	+35%
Oil Price (INR)	+39%

Key Takeaways

• Currency depreciation increases import costs
• Inflation impact is stronger in India
• Oil shocks directly affect economic stability

Macro Impact: Economic and Market Effects

The rise in oil prices has broader consequences across sectors.

Key Takeaways

• Inflation pressure increases across the economy
• Input costs rise for industries like aviation and FMCG
• Currency weakens due to higher import bills
• Energy sector companies benefit from higher prices

Final Conclusion

The crude oil movement from $72 to around $97 represents a complete structural shift rather than a temporary spike. Markets moved through clear stages including stability, shock, panic, rally, and stabilization.

The key insight is simple but powerful Markets price expectations first, reality later

Geopolitical events do not just create short-term volatility. They redefine long-term pricing structures across global markets.

Why did crude oil prices rise so sharply in 2026

Crude oil prices surged because geopolitical tensions created fear of supply disruptions, especially in key shipping routes. Markets priced these risks early, leading to a rapid increase even before actual shortages occurred

Why did oil prices not fall back to pre-war levels

Prices remained elevated because the conflict introduced a long-term risk premium. Even after panic reduced, markets continued pricing uncertainty and supply risks

How does rising crude oil impact India

Higher oil prices increase fuel costs, raise inflation, weaken the rupee, and increase the import bill. This impacts both consumers and businesses across the economy