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Thu, 24 Sept 2026
05:30:42 pm
Thu, 24 Sept 2026
05:30:42 pm
Rudransh Sangwan
Published at: September 24, 2026, 1:45 PM
Synopsis
Angel One faces market share pressure as Macquarie sees 10% FY26 to FY30 revenue growth, higher marketing costs and lower core margins.
Angel One shares fell 3% to Rs 290 on September 24 on the BSE as benchmark indices came under pressure. The stock was still 23% higher on a year to date basis, while Macquarie has a Rs 285 target price and a neutral rating on the stock.
Macquarie expects Angel One's growth to face pressure from continued losses in its share of active NSE clients. The brokerage also expects higher marketing spending to weigh on profitability as the company tries to defend its position in the online broking market.
Angel One has moved from a traditional branch focused brokerage model toward a combination of physical and digital services. Macquarie said the next phase of growth could be harder as the company deals with market share pressure and a business that has lower margins than some other capital market players.
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Angel One's share of active NSE clients was 14.8% in FY26, where it flattened after earlier gains. Macquarie said Angel One lost about 120,000 NSE active users during H1CY26, covering the first six months of calendar year 2026.
The transactions business is particularly important because it contributed 60% of Angel One's FY26 revenue. Continued losses in active users could therefore affect both the company's market position and its revenue growth.
Macquarie expects this pressure to continue unless Angel One can regain market share through new products, stronger customer acquisition or higher investor activity.
The issue also comes against a wider shift in India's broking industry. Angel One competes with large digital brokers and bank backed platforms, where customer acquisition, trading activity and pricing remain major factors. WeloMoney has earlier explained how brokers make money beyond brokerage, including income linked to client funds.
Macquarie estimates that Angel One's revenue will grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate from FY26 to FY30. That is below its estimated industry total addressable market growth of 17% to 18% over the same period.
The difference matters because slower revenue growth than the broader industry could indicate that Angel One is losing part of the growth available in the capital markets business.
| Particulars | Figure |
|---|---|
| Angel One active NSE client share in FY26 | 14.8% |
| NSE active users lost in H1CY26 | About 120,000 |
| Transactions share of FY26 revenue | 60% |
| Estimated FY26 to FY30 revenue CAGR | 10% |
| Estimated industry TAM CAGR | 17% to 18% |
| Macquarie target price | Rs 285 |
| Share price on September 24 | Rs 290 |
| Year to date stock gain | 23% |
Macquarie's view is that market share losses could make it harder for Angel One to match the growth of the overall industry. The brokerage also expects spending on marketing to rise as the company works to attract and retain users.
Macquarie also pointed to the role of interest income from client account fixed deposits in Angel One's reported profitability.
The brokerage estimates that interest income from client account fixed deposits contributed about 34% of Angel One's FY26 EBITDA. For Groww, the comparable contribution was estimated at 13%.
Macquarie therefore estimates that Angel One's underlying business profitability is lower than its reported EBITDA margin suggests.
| Profitability measure | Angel One | Groww |
|---|---|---|
| Client account FD interest contribution to FY26 EBITDA | About 34% | 13% |
| Angel One reported EBITDA margin | 26.9% | Not provided |
| Angel One estimated core EBITDA margin | About 20% | Not provided |
According to Macquarie's estimates, removing the contribution from client account FD interest income would put Angel One's implied core business EBITDA margin closer to 20%, compared with a reported margin of 26.9%.
This makes trading activity more relevant to the company's earnings. If transaction volumes weaken while the company also needs to spend more on marketing, profitability could come under further pressure.
Macquarie identified four developments that could help reverse the current trend. These relate to investor activity, market share and Angel One's ability to introduce products that attract users.
The factors identified by the brokerage are:
Higher market activity could support transaction volumes across the broking industry. Large IPOs could also bring new investors into the market and increase trading and investment activity.
A recovery in foreign portfolio investment could have a broader effect on Indian capital markets by increasing activity and liquidity. Angel One's ability to gain market share would also directly address one of the main concerns raised by Macquarie.
Angel One has been changing its business model from a traditional branch based brokerage toward a more digitally driven model. Macquarie described this transition as a move from "Bricks & Mortar" to "Bricks & Clicks".
The company had initially gained market share during this transition. However, Macquarie said the share of active NSE clients later flattened at 14.8% in FY26, followed by a loss of about 120,000 active NSE users in H1CY26.
The challenge for Angel One is therefore not only gaining new customers but also maintaining its share of active market participants as competition remains strong.
The company's revenue mix also means that trading activity remains important. With transactions contributing 60% of FY26 revenue, changes in user activity can have a direct effect on the business.
The Indian broking market continues to depend heavily on retail participation, trading volumes and the ability of platforms to attract active customers. Angel One's experience highlights how market share can affect growth even when overall market activity remains substantial.
Macquarie's estimated industry TAM growth of 17% to 18% from FY26 onward is higher than its 10% revenue CAGR estimate for Angel One. The gap reflects the brokerage's view that company specific factors, including market share losses and higher marketing costs, could limit Angel One's ability to capture industry growth.
For readers tracking the broader market, recent movements in benchmark indices can also affect trading activity and investor sentiment. WeloMoney has covered recent Indian stock market movements as part of its market coverage.
The main factors to monitor in the coming periods are Angel One's active client base, NSE market share, trading activity and the contribution of client account FD interest income to earnings.
Revenue growth will also be important because Macquarie's 10% FY26 to FY30 revenue CAGR estimate is below its estimate for industry growth. Marketing expenses and the performance of new products could provide further evidence of whether Angel One can regain market share.
The company will also be watched for any improvement in active user additions and transaction volumes. Large IPO activity and a possible return of foreign portfolio investment are other factors Macquarie has identified as potential drivers of stronger market activity.
The next relevant updates will therefore come from Angel One's customer and market share data, financial results, product launches and management commentary on growth and spending.
Macquarie is neutral on Angel One because it expects market share losses, higher marketing spending and the contribution from client account FD interest income to weigh on growth and earnings quality. The brokerage has a Rs 285 target price for the stock.
Angel One's share of active NSE clients was 14.8% in FY26, according to Macquarie's analysis. The brokerage also said Angel One lost about 120,000 NSE active users during H1CY26.
Macquarie expects Angel One's revenue to grow at a 10% CAGR from FY26 to FY30. This is below the brokerage's estimated 17% to 18% CAGR for the industry's total addressable market.
Transactions contributed 60% of Angel One's FY26 revenue. This makes trading activity and the company's active user base important factors for future revenue growth.
Macquarie estimates Angel One's core EBITDA margin at about 20% after excluding the contribution from client account FD interest income. The brokerage compares this with a reported EBITDA margin of 26.9%.
Macquarie identified large IPOs, market share gains, successful new product launches and renewed foreign portfolio investment in India as factors that could improve Angel One's growth outlook.
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