Kotak Slashes Target Prices for TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech Amid GenAI Pricing Pressure

Kotak Institutional Equities has lowered its fair value estimates for several leading Indian IT companies, citing weaker Q1 FY27 growth expectations driven by Generative AI (GenAI)-led pricing pressure, productivity pass-through, currency headwinds, and geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia. The brokerage reduced target prices across the sector by up to 21%, highlighting growing concerns over revenue growth and margin sustainability.

While seasonal demand typically supports the June quarter, Kotak believes multiple macro and structural factors are offsetting this benefit. The brokerage expects AI-driven productivity gains to increasingly benefit clients through lower pricing rather than boosting margins for IT service providers, resulting in slower revenue growth across the sector.

Kotak Cuts Fair Value Estimates Across Indian IT Sector

Kotak Institutional Equities has revised its outlook for several frontline and mid-cap IT companies, reducing target prices by 2% to 21% across its coverage universe.

The brokerage expects weak sequential growth during Q1 FY27, as enterprises continue to negotiate lower pricing while adopting AI-powered automation and productivity tools.

Kotak's Latest Ratings and Target Prices

Company	Rating	Revised Target Price
Infosys	Buy	₹1,220
TCS	Add	₹2,450
HCL Technologies	Add	₹1,120
Mphasis	Buy	₹2,210
Coforge	Buy	₹1,640
Wipro	Sell	₹150
KPIT Technologies	Sell	₹520

Kotak noted that the revisions reflect sector-wide structural changes rather than company-specific weaknesses.

GenAI Productivity Gains Becoming a Double-Edged Sword

According to the brokerage, one of the biggest challenges for IT service providers is the AI productivity pass-through.

As enterprises increasingly deploy Generative AI, automation enables faster software development, testing, and delivery. However, instead of allowing IT vendors to retain these efficiency gains as higher margins, clients are demanding lower pricing during contract renewals.

This trend is expected to compress revenue growth even if project volumes remain stable.

Q1 FY27 Revenue Outlook Remains Weak

Kotak expects limited sequential growth across India's largest IT companies during the June quarter.

Q1 FY27 Revenue Expectations

Company	Expected QoQ Growth
Infosys	+1.0%
Tech Mahindra	+1.0%
TCS	Flat
Wipro	-1.1%
HCL Technologies	-1.0%

The brokerage believes that the usual seasonal strength has been offset by weaker client spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI-driven pricing pressure.

Currency and West Asia Tensions Add Further Pressure

Apart from AI-related challenges, Kotak highlighted additional macroeconomic headwinds affecting the sector.

The depreciation in the USD-INR exchange rate during the quarter is expected to reduce revenue growth in reported terms, while ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia have created uncertainty around enterprise technology spending across several global markets.

These factors are expected to weigh on both revenue growth and operating margins during Q1 FY27.

Sector-Wide Repricing Reflects Structural Shift

Kotak believes the current weakness is not a temporary slowdown but reflects a broader structural transformation within the global IT services industry.

As AI adoption accelerates, enterprises are increasingly demanding greater productivity while negotiating lower contract pricing. This changes the traditional outsourcing model, where efficiency gains previously translated into higher profitability for IT service providers.

Instead, AI-driven savings are now being shared with clients, resulting in slower revenue growth despite stable demand.

Market Analysis

India's IT sector is entering a new phase where Generative AI is reshaping traditional business models. While AI creates new revenue opportunities in consulting, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and AI implementation, it is also increasing pricing pressure on conventional outsourcing services.

Brokerages believe companies with stronger AI capabilities, diversified client bases, and higher-value digital offerings are likely to outperform peers that remain dependent on traditional application maintenance and legacy outsourcing contracts.

Investors will closely monitor upcoming Q1 FY27 earnings, management commentary on AI monetisation, deal wins, pricing trends, and margin guidance to assess how quickly companies can adapt to the evolving AI landscape.

What Should Investors Watch?

Investors should monitor AI-related deal pipelines, pricing trends, large contract wins, discretionary technology spending, currency movements, and management commentary during Q1 FY27 earnings, as these factors are expected to determine the next phase of growth for India's IT sector.

Key Takeaways

Highlights	Details
Brokerage	Kotak Institutional Equities
Sector	Indian IT Services
Target Price Revision	2% to 21% Cut
Major Concern	GenAI Pricing Pressure
Additional Headwinds	West Asia Tensions & Currency Impact
Best Ratings	Infosys, Mphasis, Coforge
Bearish Calls	Wipro, KPIT Technologies

Why did Kotak cut target prices for Indian IT stocks?

Kotak lowered target prices due to weaker Q1 FY27 growth expectations, AI-driven pricing pressure, currency headwinds, and geopolitical uncertainty affecting technology spending.

How is Generative AI impacting IT companies?

Generative AI is improving productivity, but many clients are demanding lower pricing during contract renewals, reducing revenue growth opportunities for IT service providers.

Which IT stocks received Buy ratings?

Kotak maintained Buy ratings on Infosys, Mphasis, and Coforge, citing relatively stronger long-term growth potential.

Which companies received Sell ratings?

The brokerage retained Sell ratings on Wipro and KPIT Technologies, reflecting relatively higher exposure to AI-led pricing pressure.