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Tue, 29 Sept 2026
07:37:17 pm
Tue, 29 Sept 2026
07:37:17 pm
Rudransh Sangwan
Published at: May 9, 2026, 10:33 AM
Synopsis
The Indian Rupee remained volatile during the week ending May 9, 2026, as rising crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows, and geopolitical tensions in West Asia continued to pressure the currency. The rupee closed at ₹94.47 against the US Dollar after touching a fresh record low near ₹95.43 earlier in the week. Strong US dollar momentum, higher-for-longer Federal Reserve expectations, and elevated oil prices remain key concerns for the Indian currency. RBI intervention has helped stabilize the rupee temporarily, while export-oriented sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals may benefit from the weaker currency.
The Indian Rupee remained volatile against the US Dollar during the week ending Saturday, May 9, 2026, as rising crude oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and persistent foreign investor outflows continued to pressure emerging market currencies globally.
Although forex markets remain closed over the weekend, Friday’s closing levels and broader macroeconomic trends indicate that the rupee is still under significant stress after touching fresh record lows earlier this week.
The rupee closed at ₹94.47 against the US Dollar on Friday after recovering from an intraday slide, supported partly by intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The rupee witnessed sharp swings throughout the week due to oil price volatility and global risk aversion.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Friday Close (May 8, 2026) | ₹94.47 per USD |
| Weekly Intraday Low | ₹95.43 per USD |
| Weekly Resistance Zone | ₹94.90 – ₹95.50 |
| Immediate Support Zone | ₹94.10 – ₹94.20 |
The Indian currency had earlier touched a fresh all-time low near ₹95.43 during the week before RBI intervention helped stabilize the market.
Several interconnected global and domestic factors are currently driving weakness in the Indian currency.
The primary reason behind the rupee’s weakness is the sharp rise in crude oil prices triggered by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader US-Iran conflict.
Brent crude prices briefly surged above $110 per barrel earlier this week before cooling slightly toward the $100 mark.
India imports nearly 88% of its crude oil requirements, making the economy highly sensitive to oil shocks.
Higher crude prices increase:
This creates sustained downward pressure on the rupee.
Recent US inflation and labor market data have strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts.
The Fed has maintained interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range, while US inflation remains elevated near 3.3%.
Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar globally and reduce investor appetite for emerging market currencies like the rupee.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have aggressively reduced exposure to Indian equities and debt markets amid global uncertainty.
Persistent FII selling has increased demand for dollars and weakened the rupee further.
Global markets remain nervous due to ongoing tensions involving the US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption in energy supply routes could sharply increase oil prices again and worsen pressure on oil-importing economies like India.
The geopolitical risk premium continues to support safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India has actively intervened in currency markets to prevent excessive rupee volatility.
| RBI Action | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Dollar selling via state-run banks | Stabilize rupee |
| Tightening forex derivative rules | Reduce speculation |
| Liquidity management | Control volatility |
| Forex reserve deployment | Defend key currency levels |
Reports suggest RBI intervention intensified after the rupee breached the ₹95 mark earlier this week.
India’s forex reserves, however, fell recently as intervention activity increased.
A weaker rupee creates both winners and losers across the Indian economy.
| Sector | Benefit |
|---|---|
| IT Services | Higher dollar revenue realization |
| Pharmaceuticals | Improved export margins |
| Specialty Chemicals | Export competitiveness |
| Sector | Risk |
|---|---|
| Aviation | Higher fuel costs |
| Oil Marketing Companies | Margin pressure |
| Electronics Manufacturing | Expensive imports |
| Auto Industry | Higher component costs |
Import-heavy businesses could see significant margin compression if the rupee weakens further.
Currency analysts believe volatility is likely to remain elevated next week as traders continue tracking oil prices, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments.
| Level Type | Range |
|---|---|
| Strong Support | ₹94.10 – ₹94.20 |
| Near Resistance | ₹94.90 – ₹95.50 |
| Major Risk Zone | Above ₹95.50 |
Analysts say sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could push the rupee back toward record lows.
Key triggers for the rupee in coming sessions include:
These factors will determine whether the rupee stabilizes or resumes its downward trend.
The Indian Rupee remains under significant pressure amid rising oil prices, strong US dollar momentum, foreign investor outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.
Although RBI intervention has prevented a sharper collapse, volatility in the INR/USD pair is expected to remain elevated as global markets react to energy prices and monetary policy expectations.
Export-driven sectors could benefit from rupee weakness, while oil-sensitive and import-heavy industries may continue facing pressure in the near term.
The Indian Rupee closed at ₹94.47 against the US Dollar on Friday, May 8, 2026.
The rupee weakened mainly due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, FII outflows, and strong US dollar demand.
India imports most of its crude oil. Higher oil prices increase dollar demand for imports, which weakens the rupee.
Yes, RBI has actively intervened through state-run banks and forex market measures to reduce excessive volatility.
IT services, pharmaceuticals, and export-oriented businesses generally benefit because they earn revenues in US dollars.
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